The Research Letter is deep, original investment research written by one person and read by a small list. Each issue takes a single structural question — the kind that decides returns over years, not weeks — and works it through properly: the history, the mechanics, the numbers, and what would prove the argument wrong.
Every issue is timestamped. The date and the relevant prices are printed in the piece, so the calls can be checked against the tape rather than against my memory of them.
The Record So Far
Research Letter No. 1 — The Ledger War.
Published August 7 2026, with gold at $4,377. The case that the machinery of wartime finance — the 1942 playbook, where the state supports the price of its own debt rather than pay the market’s rate — is reassembling itself piece by piece, in language too boring to notice.
Two weeks later, with the 30-year yield at a near two-decade high, the U.S. Treasury announced — off-cycle — that it was at least doubling its buybacks of long-dated bonds, citing “liquidity support.” Long yields fell immediately.
Research Letter No. 1: The Ledger War → The Treasury Just Did The Thing.
Research Letter No. 2 — The Weirdness Premium.
Published August 26 2026. It argued that cognitive diversity as an investing edge: that unusual, “weird” ways of seeing carry a premium precisely because everyone competent converges on the same cached pattern-matching, so the edge comes from thinking differently rather than from being smarter.
Research Letter No. 2: The Weirdness Premium
What Subscribers Get
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The Letter is written for people who allocate capital seriously: fund managers, family offices, founders and independent investors who want fewer, better sources of insight.
Founding terms
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The Research Letter is research and commentary, not investment advice, and nothing in it is a personal recommendation. Full details on the Disclaimer page.