The Curious Mind: What I (Re-)Learnt in 2024, Planning The Year Ahead, What's Next In the Middle East, Jared Kushner on Invest Like The Best, OpenAI o3, Curious Mind Events....
December 23, 2024
I am sharing this weekly email with you because I count you in the group of people I learn from and enjoy being around.
If you missed last week’s issue: Will AI Generate Creative Destruction, How To 10x Your Life, Is It Time To Buy Europe?, Sapolsky on Behaviour, New AI Tools, Building Ribbit, Satya Nadella on Enterprise AI...
This will be 2024’s last email from me. I wanted to particularly thank the members of our Brain Trust. Thank you for being early believers.
Believe it or not, that “♡ Like” button is a big deal – it serves as a proxy to new visitors of this publication’s value. If you got value out of reading, please let others know!
Some Of My Favourite Quotes Of The Year:
“Do not spoil what you have by desiring what you have not; remember that what you now have was once among the things you only hoped for.”
- Epicurus
"Change is never painful, only the resistance to change is painful."
- Buddha
“Once we realise that imperfect understanding is the human condition there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes.”
- George Soros
“It is a bit embarrassing to have been concerned with the human problem all one's life and find at the end that one has no more to offer by way of advice than ‘Try to be a little kinder.’”
- Aldous Huxley on his death bed
"If you only wished to be happy, this could be easily accomplished; but we wish to be happier than other people, and this is always difficult, for we believe others to be happier than they are.”
-Montesquieu
“Sometimes the most important things in a man's life are the one's he talks about the least.”
- Louis L'Amour
“Our goal should be to live life in radical amazement… get up in the morning and look at the world in a way that takes nothing for granted. Everything is phenomenal; everything is incredible; never treat life casually. To be spiritual is to be amazed.”
- Rabbi Heschel
“The more you seek the uncomfortable, the more comfortable you will become.”
- Conor McGregor
“All courses of action are risky, so prudence is not in avoiding danger (it's impossible), but calculating risk and acting decisively. Make mistakes of ambition and not mistakes of sloth. Develop the strength to do bold things, not the strength to suffer.”
- Niccolo Machiavelli
“The cave you fear to enter holds the treasure you seek”
- Joseph Campbell
“Always do what you are afraid to do”
- Ralph Waldo Emerson
“If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them.”
- Bruce Lee
A. What I (Re-)Learnt This Year
Another year comes to a close and I try to reflect back on what I’ve learnt last year and over my 48 years.
1) Hedonic Adaptation is Real: nothing is as big a deal as you think it is at the time. Angry or sad emotions from life traumas fade, but so will the positive surprises from one-time life upgrades. What’s left is just you.
Remember: This Too Shall Pass. Be happy with who and what you have today. The present is all there is.
2) Habits Are The Only Things That Matter: most of your day & life is comprised of repeating the same set of behaviours over and over. The way you get up, your thoughts. Your job. The way you interact with other people. The way you eat and exercise.
Remember: Unless you give all of this a lot of mindful attention and work to adjust it, it stays the same, which means your life barely changes, which means your level of happiness barely changes.
3) To Change Your Life, Change Your Habits: The easiest and best way to have a happier and more satisfying life is to figure out what ingredients go into a happier life, a more successful career or just perfect day, and start adding those things while subtracting the things that create the inverse.
Remember: You have the ability and agency to create the life you want. All you have to do is get started and the universe will conspire in your favour.
B. Planning The Year Ahead
I try to use December and January for thinking about the year that has gone by and planning the next.
I’ve found reflecting and planning to be a useful exercise, not because things go according to plan, but because thinking about what you really want and how you are going to get there is a useful exercise.... or as President & General Eisenhower said:
1) Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.
2) Plans are worthless, but planning is essential.
There are probably two career planning texts that are powerful and worth reading multiple times (I have) and they help guide me.
Firstly, Byron Wien’s: Lessons Learned in His First 80 Years.
The 3 lessons that really resonated with me:
Network intensely. Luck plays a big role in life, and there is no better way to increase your luck than by knowing as many people as possible. Nurture your network by sending articles, books and emails to people to show you’re thinking about them. Write op-eds and thought pieces for major publications. Organize discussion groups to bring your thoughtful friends together.
When you meet someone new, treat that person as a friend. Assume he or she is a winner and will become a positive force in your life. Most people wait for others to prove their value. Give them the benefit of the doubt from the start. Occasionally you will be disappointed, but your network will broaden rapidly if you follow this path.
Read all the time. Don’t just do it because you’re curious about something, read actively. Have a point of view before you start a book or article and see if what you think is confirmed or refuted by the author. If you do that, you will read faster and comprehend more.
Secondly, Sam Altman’s: How To Be Successful from 2019:
Here are 3 parts that resonated with me:
Compound Yourself....You don't want to be in a career where people who have been doing it for two years can be as effective as people who have been doing it for twenty—your rate of learning should always be high. As your career progresses, each unit of work you do should generate more and more results. There are many ways to get this leverage, such as capital, technology, brand, network effects, and managing people....Trust the exponential, be patient, and be pleasantly surprised.
Focus......Almost everyone I’ve ever met would be well-served by spending more time thinking about what to focus on. It is much more important to work on the right thing than it is to work many hours. Most people waste most of their time on stuff that doesn’t matter.
Be hard to compete with....The best way to become difficult to compete with is to build up leverage. For example, you can do it with personal relationships, by building a strong personal brand, or by getting good at the intersection of multiple different fields. There are many other strategies, but you have to figure out some way to do it.
What are your goals for 2025?
C. A Few Things Worth Checking Out:
I will keep this section short since its holiday season.
1. What’s next in the Middle East?: Demetri Kofinas at Hidden Forces spoke with geopolitical analyst and forecaster Kamran Bokhari about the fall of Damascus and the implications of Bashar al-Assad’s ouster in Syria for the balance of power in the Middle East.
The issue with most news coverage is that it’s just news, not analysis, provides limited historical context and even less of a view around future implications. Kamran has always done a good job connecting all the dots.
The 5 BIG IDEAS:
The Fall: The fall of Assad's regime marks a historic rupture in Middle Eastern geopolitics, ending a power structure that has defined the region for over four decades. Within just nine days, rebel forces dismantled what Iran had spent billions of dollars and years of strategic investment building - its "Shia Crescent" from Tehran to the Mediterranean. This shocking speed of collapse revealed how Iran's regional influence, while appearing formidable, was actually quite fragile once its key ally Syria fell.
Turkey Winner: Turkey's emergence as the dominant regional power reflects deeper historical patterns rather than just current politics. By supporting Syrian rebel groups and skillfully balancing relationships with both the US and Russia, Turkey has positioned itself as the primary influence in Syria - reclaiming a role it historically held for centuries under Ottoman rule. Unlike Saudi Arabia's dependence on American security guarantees, Turkey has demonstrated an ability to act independently while maintaining strategic flexibility.
Pragmatism: The transformation of Islamic revolutionary movements is exemplified by two parallel developments: HTS leader Jolani's evolution from al-Qaeda affiliate to pragmatic state-builder in Syria, and Iran's potential transition from ideological theocracy to practical military regime. This suggests a broader pattern where revolutionary Islamic movements, when faced with actual governance challenges, tend to evolve toward pragmatism - though whether this leads to genuine moderation remains unclear.
Unpredictability: The new regional dynamics force every major player to fundamentally reassess their position. Israel has achieved its immediate goal of breaking Iran's northern threat but now faces unpredictable Sunni groups on its borders. Saudi Arabia must manage both Turkish ambitions and a weakened but still relevant Iran. Egypt's military regime faces heightened domestic vulnerability as another Arab strongman falls. Russia, already strained by Ukraine, has lost its Mediterranean foothold. Each actor must navigate this new landscape without clear precedents to guide them.
What comes next?: What's unfolding in the Middle East reflects a broader dissolution of the post-Cold War order. We're witnessing the emergence of a more fluid international system where traditional state boundaries hold less meaning, formal alliances become more flexible, and power is increasingly expressed through complex networks rather than simple hierarchies. This transition appears to be not just regional but global, suggesting changes as fundamental as those that reshaped the world in the early 20th century.
2. Patrick O’Shaughnessy spoke to Jared Kushner about his life. I didn’t expect to enjoy this as much as I did. Jared is a rare talent.
They discussed his early life in Real Estate, time in the White House, his investment firm Affinity Partners and thoughts on Trump’s next term.
The 5 BIG IDEAS:
Setbacks: Kushner's philosophy of viewing setbacks as training opportunities transformed potentially devastating challenges into valuable learning experiences. When his family's landmark purchase of 666 Fifth Avenue was threatened during the 2008 financial crisis, instead of panicking, he methodically worked through solutions, eventually bringing in partners like Colony Capital's Tom Barrack and creating positive outcomes. This approach later proved vital in government, where he applied the same methodical problem-solving to initiatives like Operation Warp Speed during the COVID-19 crisis.
The Art of Listening: His success in negotiations stems from an unusual dedication to listening rather than talking. While helping broker the Abraham Accords, Kushner spent his first hour with UAE leader MBZ simply asking questions - a approach MBZ said distinguished him from every other U.S. diplomat he'd met. This same listening-first strategy helped him navigate complex New York real estate deals, where he learned that understanding counterparties' true motivations was more valuable than aggressive negotiating tactics.
Business Acumen + Geopolitics: Affinity Partners represents a new model combining business acumen with geopolitical insight. When evaluating opportunities like infrastructure investments in Mexico or financial services in Israel, Kushner analyzes not just traditional metrics but also geopolitical trends and relationships. This hybrid approach led to successful investments during periods others saw as too risky, such as acquiring Brazilian quick-service restaurants during a period of high interest rates and currency volatility.
A Family-Centered Approach: His business foundation was built on powerful family mentorship, particularly from his father Charles, who taught him to read financial statements at age 10 and emphasized responsibility through lessons like "the only excuse for being late is not leaving early enough." These early teachings expanded through his partnership with his brother Josh in building Thrive Capital, where they focused on being the kind of investors they wished they'd had as young entrepreneurs. This family-centered approach to business continues to influence his leadership style.
Listen, Observe, then Act: While many in politics and business adhere to rigid ideologies, Kushner prioritizes empirical observation and practical solutions. Rather than approaching Middle East peace through traditional diplomatic frameworks, he focused on economic opportunity and mutual interests, leading to breakthrough agreements like the Abraham Accords. In business, this pragmatism manifests in his willingness to invest counter-cyclically, looking past conventional wisdom to find opportunities others miss during uncertain times.
3. OpenAI previewed a new reasoning model, o3. The new model is good at reasoning in mathematical and programming domains. It scores really well on a particular benchmark called ARC-AGI, which is above the average human.
The core insight of O3 is its use of reinforcement learning at a larger scale than its predecessor O1. The model works by generating numerous candidate solutions through long chains of thought, which are then reviewed by a verifier model trained on correct reasoning steps, with the system being fine-tuned on verified correct answers.
This is a great video outlining the achievement and diving into O3.
D. The Curious Mind Event Series:
We are starting 2025 with a number of events.
On January 8th 11:15 am EST we will have the legendary John Pfeffer giving us an update on Bitcoin and his recent exploration of Argentina.
Here’s a short bio on John: John Pfeffer is co-founder of Pfeffer Capital, a family holding group primarily focused on founding and building sizeable operating businesses, most recently the fast-growing European discount retail concept PrimaPrix, as well as making creative, concentrated, high-conviction investments.
John is author of the widely read paper, “An (Institutional) Investor’s Take on Cryptoassets” and an active philanthropic supporter of Bitcoin development.
In the 2000s, John was a Partner at private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, based in Europe. Previously, he served as Chairman of the Executive Board of leading French IT systems integrator Groupe Allium S.A. and advised on turnarounds while with McKinsey in Europe and Latin America.
We are limited the discussion to 30 members with Brain Trust members getting priority. Please let me know if you’d like to join the zoom.
Believe it or not, that “♡ Like” button is a big deal – it serves as a proxy to new visitors of this publication’s value. If you got value out of reading, please let others know!
Let’s make 2024 a year of massive action.
"Now is the time to get serious about living your ideals. How long can you afford to put off who you really want to be? Your nobler self cannot wait any longer.
Put your principles into practice – now. Stop the excuses and the procrastination. This is your life! You aren’t a child anymore. The sooner you set yourself to your spiritual program, the happier you will be. The longer you wait, the more you’ll be vulnerable to mediocrity and feel filled with shame and regret, because you know you are capable of better.
From this instant on, vow to stop disappointing yourself. Separate yourself from the mob. Decide to be extraordinary and do what you need to do – now."
- Epictetus
The Byron link no longer works, BS moved the piece
Brilliantly curated as always. Thank you!