The Great Unwinding, Your Brain Is Lying To You, Finding Your Purpose...
Regime Changes: From Global Markets to Your Own Biology
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Quotes I Am Thinking About:
“Perseverance is a great element of success. If you only knock long enough and loud enough at the gate, you are sure to wake up somebody.”
- Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
“Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.”
- Winston Churchill
"Routine is the thief of time. If your year feels like it vanished, it’s because it was boring. Novelty expands your life."
- David Eagleman
A. The Great Unwinding
The Theme: We are shifting from a US-centric "Cheat Code" economy to an "Age of Empires" where hoarding resources is king.
For nearly a decade, the “Turkish Portfolio”, a simple, high-octane mix of Gold and US Equities, was the ultimate cheat code for global wealth (h/t GaveKal).
It allowed investors to ignore the rot in fiscal policy as long as the S&P 500’s tech driven dominance kept the world’s excess dollars coming home.
But as of early 2026, the signal is flashing red.
Since February 2025, gold has officially begun to outperform the S&P 500. When the “pet rock” beats the “Mag 7,” it isn’t just a trade, it’s a regime change.
US Exceptionalism is officially an exclusion, here’s why:
The “Age of Empires” and the Death of Open Markets: We are moving from a world of “free trade” to a world of “hoarding”.
President Trump’s recent intervention in Venezuela and his recurring interest in “needing” Greenland have shattered the post-Cold War myth that commodities are always available to the highest bidder on an open market for two reasons:
The Resource Scramble: If you think the capture of Caracas is bearish for oil because it opens up supply, you are likely wrong. Venezuela is unlikely to bring significant new barrels online in 2026.
Instead, we have a “Chuck Norris Premium”: a geopolitical tax on oil prices driven by a White House that has shown a new proclivity for special ops induced regime change.
Industrial Hoarding: Investors should “triple down” on industrial commodities like Copper, Nickel, and Palladium. In a multipolar world, these aren’t just inputs; they are the strategic “fortress” assets that empires need to build resilience and defence capacity.
Europe: The Geopolitical Sweet Spot
Contrary to popular consensus, Europe has found itself in a “geopolitical sweet spot”. The fear of being abandoned by the US and the threat of Chinese industrial competition have done what decades of diplomacy couldn’t: forced the EU to stimulate, reflate, and reform.
Merz at Davos: Europe must boost its unity and competitiveness to help it fight back against the new era of “great power politics”. That meant massive investment in defence, measures to improve economic competitiveness, and unity among Europeans and “like-minded partners”.
Two things that will help Europe:
The LNG Tsunami: Europe’s energy crisis is over, but the “shockwave therapy” is just beginning to yield results. A massive expansion in LNG re-gasification capacity is meeting a global glut, potentially turning energy intensive European industrials into a major beneficiary of structurally lower prices.
Defence on the Offence: European NATO members have pivoted from a 2% GDP spending floor to a 3.5% target by 2035.
The “European Preference” in procurement is a massive structural tailwind for local defence stocks, particularly in France, which currently trades at a discount to its German peers.
The US Domestic Fix: Housing Emergencies & AI Realities
Back in the States, the “AI House of Cards” is showing cracks. Despite the capex mania, there is a widening “aspiration vs. reality” gap in AI adoption. Corporate profit margins are not yet seeing the promised productivity revolution, and AI’s contribution to GDP is starting to falter.
To avoid a significant slowdown as the “fiscal gravy train” runs dry, expect the White House to declare a “Housing Emergency” in 2026. Everything is on the table
The BCA’s Playbook:
In 2026, portfolio management is an exercise in exclusion:
Exclude: US Treasuries and Dollar cash, the “Fed Premium” and fiscal uncertainty make them toxic.
Short: The cap weighted S&P 500 (the “Magnificent 7” era is over).
Long: European Industrials (specifically French defense), Industrial Metals, and Asia ex-Japan.
Robert Friedland gave a great speech on Copper last week.
Disclaimer: This publication’s author is not licensed investment professional. Nothing produced by the Curious Mind team should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
B. Your Brain is Lying to You: 3 Bio-Hacks from Andrew Huberman and David Eagleman
Most of what you believe about your brain is a comforting lie.
We like to think of ourselves as rational, consistent, and in control. We think our memories are like files in a cabinet and our dreams are messages from the soul.
The neuroscience says otherwise.
If you feel stuck, overwhelmed, or like your life is moving too fast, it’s likely because you’re fighting against your own biology. Here are 3 reality shattering truths about how your brain actually works and how to hack them from this conversation between Andrew Huberman and David Eagleman.
1. Your “Future Self” is a Total Stranger
Ever wonder why 9:00 AM You signs up for a marathon, but 9:00 PM You just wants pizza and Netflix? It’s because, neurologically, they aren’t the same person. Your brain processes “Future You” as a stranger.
The Fix: Stop making promises. Start building “architecture.” Delete the apps, prepay for the class, and lock the door. Force your future self to follow the path you laid out.
2. Fear Doesn’t Slow Time, It Just Bloats Your Hard Drive
Time doesn’t actually slow down during a car crash. Your brain just starts recording at a much higher “bitrate.” Because there’s more data to scan through later, your memory perceives the event as longer.
The Fix: Routine is the thief of time. If your year feels like it vanished, it’s because it was boring. Novelty expands your life.
3. Anxiety is a “Close-Focus” Trap
People stuck in anxiety spirals are usually stuck in “close-focus” (looking at phones, or their own breath). Your brain processes space and time together.
The Fix: Zoom out. Literally. Look at the horizon, the city, the stars. Shifting your spatial focus forces your brain to lengthen its time horizon, killing the immediate panic.
The Bottom Line: Stop trying to “think” your way into a better life. Your brain is a biological machine that responds to environment, novelty, and spatial focus. Stop fighting the software. Start hacking the hardware.
C. Hunter S. Thompson’s Letter on Finding Your Purpose and Living a Meaningful Life
In April of 1958, Hunter Thompson was 22 years old when he wrote this letter to his friend Hume Logan in response to a request for life advice.
TL;DR: Stop trying to find the "right" job. Instead, decide how you want your days to look, then find a way to make a living within that lifestyle. The goal must conform to the man, not the man to the goal.
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Novelty does not expand your life, it expands your memories...